SLCESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
November 13, 2018


The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local 
(or intervening flow).

Forecasts include monthly values for November - January.

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November 1-12 OBSERVED (EST.) DATA: (From USGS gage data) 
                       - values in KAF -

(Colorado Diamond Ck 415.0 + Muddy River 0.9 + 
Virgin River 8.1 - BOR Powell Release 383.0) ~ 41.0 KAF

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FORECASTS (using the Ensemble Prediction System):

* All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value *

Lake Mead Intervening Flow:

November - January Forecasts

	   November   65  KAF (93% of average)
	   December   45  KAF (55% of average)
           January    51  KAF (50% of average)


Lake Mead Adjusted Intervening Flow:

November - January Forecasts

	  November   49.1  KAF
	  December   58.2  KAF
          January    64.6  KAF


Equation Used for Adjusted Flow: 

Inflow(BOR) = Inflow(NWS) + Evap(BOR) - Evap(NWS) + BankStorageChange(BOR)

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Tributaries:

           Virgin River
           nr Littlefield

	   Nov  9.9 KAF (86% of median or 83% of average)
	   Dec  7.5 KAF (62% of median or 45% of average)
           Jan  8.8 KAF (70% of median or 49% of average)
	   
          Little Colorado
           nr Cameron

	   Nov  2.6 KAF (756% of median or 70% of average)
	   Dec  0.4 KAF ( 71% of median or  9% of average)
           Jan  4.0 KAF (386% of median or 28% of average)
        
          Paria Creek
           nr Lees Ferry

	   Nov  1.1 KAF (88% of median or 83% of average)
	   Dec  1.0 KAF (86% of median or 75% of average)
           Jan  1.2 KAF (98% of median or 75% of average)

       * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * 

$$

Finch/CBRFC