SLCESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
November 29, 2018


The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local 
(or intervening flow).

Forecasts include monthly values for December - February.

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November 1-28 OBSERVED (EST.) DATA: (From USGS gage data) 
                       - values in KAF -

(Colorado Diamond Ck 696.9 + Muddy River 1.8 + 
Virgin River 6.7 - BOR Powell Release 641.2) ~ 64.2 KAF

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FORECASTS (using the Ensemble Prediction System):

* All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value *

Lake Mead Intervening Flow:

December - February Forecasts

	   December   48  KAF (59% of average)
	   January    53  KAF (52% of average)
           February   56  KAF (58% of average)


Lake Mead Adjusted Intervening Flow:

December - February Forecasts

	  December   61.0  KAF
	  January    66.5  KAF
          February   59.9  KAF


Equation Used for Adjusted Flow: 

Inflow(BOR) = Inflow(NWS) + Evap(BOR) - Evap(NWS) + BankStorageChange(BOR)

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Tributaries:

           Virgin River
           nr Littlefield

	   Dec  8.4 KAF (69% of median or 51% of average)
	   Jan  9.7 KAF (77% of median or 54% of average)
           Feb  8.0 KAF (65% of median or 52% of average)
	   
          Little Colorado
           nr Cameron

	   Dec  0.6 KAF (106% of median or 14% of average)
	   Jan  2.4 KAF (232% of median or 17% of average)
           Feb  4.4 KAF (336% of median or 28% of average)
        
          Paria Creek
           nr Lees Ferry

	   Dec  1.2 KAF (103% of median or  90% of average)
	   Jan  1.2 KAF ( 98% of median or  75% of average)
           Feb  2.0 KAF (149% of median or 100% of average)

       * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * 

$$

Finch/CBRFC