SLCESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
January 1, 2020


The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local 
(or intervening flow).

Forecasts include monthly values for January through March.

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December 1-31 OBSERVED (EST.) CBRFC LML INFLOW:  
                       - values in KAF -

(Mead Release 219.9 + Mead Evap 41.4 + Mead Storage Change 566.8 + 
SNWP Use 17.0 - Lagged Powell Release 739.7) ~ 105.4

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FORECASTS (using the Ensemble Prediction System):

* All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value *

Lake Mead Intervening Flow:

January - March Forecasts

	   January    89  KAF (87% of average)
	   February   95  KAF (97% of average)
           March     117  KAF (95% of average)


Lake Mead Adjusted Intervening Flow:

January - March Forecasts

	  January   101.3  KAF
	  February  103.8  KAF
          March      92.8  KAF


Equation Used for Adjusted Flow: 

Inflow(BOR) = Inflow(NWS) + Evap(BOR) - Evap(NWS) + BankStorageChange(BOR)

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Tributaries:

           Virgin River
           nr Littlefield

	   Jan 15.8 KAF ( 88% of average)
	   Feb 15.4 KAF (101% of average)
           Mar 22.3 KAF (101% of average)
	   
          Little Colorado
           nr Cameron

	   Jan  7.8 KAF (55% of average)
	   Feb 11.4 KAF (73% of average)
           Mar 23.3 KAF (85% of average)
        
          Paria Creek
           nr Lees Ferry

	   Jan  1.5 KAF ( 94% of average)
	   Feb  2.1 KAF (115% of average)
           Mar  2.5 KAF (115% of average)

       * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * 

$$

Finch/CBRFC