SLCESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
January 15, 2020


The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local 
(or intervening flow).

Forecasts include monthly values for January through March.

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January 1-14 OBSERVED (EST.) CBRFC LML INFLOW:  
                       - values in KAF -

(Mead Release 171.4 + Mead Evap 15.7 + Mead Storage Change 171.1 + 
SNWP Use 3.2 - Lagged Powell Release 335.0) ~ 26.4

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FORECASTS (using the Ensemble Prediction System):

* All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value *

Lake Mead Intervening Flow:

January - March Forecasts

	   January    68  KAF (67% of average)
	   February   92  KAF (94% of average)
           March     122  KAF (99% of average)


Lake Mead Adjusted Intervening Flow:

January - March Forecasts

	  January    89.1  KAF
	  February  102.6  KAF
          March     103.4  KAF


Equation Used for Adjusted Flow: 

Inflow(BOR) = Inflow(NWS) + Evap(BOR) - Evap(NWS) + BankStorageChange(BOR)

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Tributaries:

           Virgin River
           nr Littlefield

	   Jan 11.9 KAF ( 66% of average)
	   Feb 14.6 KAF ( 95% of average)
           Mar 22.2 KAF (101% of average)
	   
          Little Colorado
           nr Cameron

	   Jan  1.9 KAF (13% of average)
	   Feb 10.2 KAF (65% of average)
           Mar 22.2 KAF (81% of average)
        
          Paria Creek
           nr Lees Ferry

	   Jan  0.9 KAF ( 56% of average)
	   Feb  1.8 KAF ( 99% of average)
           Mar  2.4 KAF (110% of average)

       * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * 

$$

Finch/CBRFC