SLCESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
February 1, 2020


The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local 
(or intervening flow).

Forecasts include monthly values for February - April.

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January 1-31 OBSERVED (EST.) CBRFC LML INFLOW:  
                       - values in KAF -

(Mead Release 404.9 + Mead Evap 34.8 + Mead Storage Change 365.6 + 
SNWP Use 10.0 - Lagged Powell Release 755.0) ~ 60.3

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FORECASTS (using the Ensemble Prediction System):

* All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value *

Lake Mead Intervening Flow:

February - April Forecasts

	   February   77  KAF (79% of average)
           March     104  KAF (85% of average)
           April      86  KAF (89% of average)


Lake Mead Adjusted Intervening Flow:

February - April Forecasts

	  February   88.6  KAF
          March      85.4  KAF
          April      63.2  KAF


Equation Used for Adjusted Flow: 

Inflow(BOR) = Inflow(NWS) + Evap(BOR) - Evap(NWS) + BankStorageChange(BOR)

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Tributaries:

           Virgin River
           nr Littlefield

	   Feb  9.2 KAF (60% of average)
           Mar 20.8 KAF (95% of average)
           Apr 19.9 KAF (92% of average)
	   
          Little Colorado
           nr Cameron

	   Feb  5.0 KAF (32% of average)
           Mar 14.0 KAF (51% of average)
           Apr  4.2 KAF (24% of average)
        
          Paria Creek
           nr Lees Ferry

	   Feb  1.3 KAF ( 71% of average)
           Mar  2.4 KAF (110% of average)
           Apr  1.8 KAF (161% of average)

       * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * 

$$

Finch/CBRFC