SLCESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
March 1, 2020


The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local 
(or intervening flow).

Forecasts include monthly values for March - May.

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February 1-29 OBSERVED (EST.) CBRFC LML INFLOW:  
                       - values in KAF -

(Mead Release 556.9 + Mead Evap 32.3 + Mead Storage Change 139.6 + 
SNWP Use 9.0 - Lagged Powell Release 680.2) ~ 57.6

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FORECASTS (using the Ensemble Prediction System):

* All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value *

Lake Mead Intervening Flow:

March - May Forecasts

	  March      87  KAF (71% of average)
          April      83  KAF (86% of average)
          May        75  KAF (86% of average)


Lake Mead Adjusted Intervening Flow:

March - May Forecasts

	  March      71.5  KAF
          April      60.2  KAF
          May        47.7  KAF


Equation Used for Adjusted Flow: 

Inflow(BOR) = Inflow(NWS) + Evap(BOR) - Evap(NWS) + BankStorageChange(BOR)

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Tributaries:

           Virgin River
           nr Littlefield

	   Mar 14.3 KAF (65% of average)
           Apr 17.8 KAF (83% of average)
           May 17.0 KAF (70% of average)
	   
          Little Colorado
           nr Cameron

	   Mar 11.3 KAF (41% of average)
           Apr  3.0 KAF (17% of average)
           May  0.1 KAF ( 3% of average)
        
          Paria Creek
           nr Lees Ferry

	   Mar  1.8 KAF ( 83% of average)
           Apr  1.4 KAF (125% of average)
           May  0.5 KAF ( 76% of average)

       * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * 

$$

Finch/CBRFC