SLCESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
March 15, 2020


The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local 
(or intervening flow).

Forecasts include monthly values for March - May.

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March 1-14 OBSERVED (EST.) CBRFC LML INFLOW:  
                       - values in KAF -

(Mead Release 360.3 + Mead Evap 17.0 + Mead Storage Change -2.6 + 
SNWP Use 4.0 - Lagged Powell Release 314.0) ~ 64.7

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FORECASTS (using the Ensemble Prediction System):

* All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value *

Lake Mead Intervening Flow:

March - May Forecasts

	  March     136  KAF (111% of average)
          April      90  KAF ( 93% of average)
          May        85  KAF ( 98% of average)


Lake Mead Adjusted Intervening Flow:

March - May Forecasts

	  March     124.4  KAF
          April      69.1  KAF
          May        56.5  KAF


Equation Used for Adjusted Flow: 

Inflow(BOR) = Inflow(NWS) + Evap(BOR) - Evap(NWS) + BankStorageChange(BOR)

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Tributaries:

           Virgin River
           nr Littlefield

	   Mar 30.9 KAF (141% of average)
           Apr 29.9 KAF (139% of average)
           May 25.3 KAF (105% of average)
	   
          Little Colorado
           nr Cameron

	   Mar 24.5 KAF (89% of average)
           Apr  6.6 KAF (38% of average)
           May  0.6 KAF (17% of average)
        
          Paria Creek
           nr Lees Ferry

	   Mar  2.2 KAF (101% of average)
           Apr  1.7 KAF (152% of average)
           May  0.5 KAF ( 76% of average)

       * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * 

$$

Finch/CBRFC