SLCESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
April 1, 2020


The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local 
(or intervening flow).

Forecasts include monthly values for April - June.

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March 1-31 OBSERVED (EST.) CBRFC LML INFLOW:  
                       - values in KAF -

(Mead Release 593.0 + Mead Evap 38.1 + Mead Storage Change 205.1 + 
SNWP Use 11.0 - Lagged Powell Release 704.7) ~ 142.5

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FORECASTS (using the Ensemble Prediction System):

* All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value *

Lake Mead Intervening Flow:

April - June Forecasts

	  April      90  KAF ( 93% of average)
          May        82  KAF ( 94% of average)
          June       63  KAF (107% of average)


Lake Mead Adjusted Intervening Flow:

April - June Forecasts

	  April      49.1  KAF
          May        53.5  KAF
          June       34.6  KAF


Equation Used for Adjusted Flow: 

Inflow(BOR) = Inflow(NWS) + Evap(BOR) - Evap(NWS) + BankStorageChange(BOR)

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Tributaries:

           Virgin River
           nr Littlefield

	   Apr  25.6 KAF (119% of average)
           May  21.5 KAF ( 89% of average)
           June 10.2 KAF (100% of average)
	   
          Little Colorado
           nr Cameron

	   Apr  2.9 KAF ( 17% of average)
           May  1.3 KAF ( 36% of average)
           June 0.2 KAF (111% of average)
        
          Paria Creek
           nr Lees Ferry

	   Apr  1.9 KAF (170% of average)
           May  0.6 KAF ( 92% of average)
           June 0.4 KAF ( 90% of average)

       * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * 

$$

Finch/CBRFC