SLCESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
May 18, 2020


The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local 
(or intervening flow).

Forecasts include monthly values for May - July.

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May 1-17 OBSERVED (EST.) CBRFC LML INFLOW:  
                       - values in KAF -

(Mead Release 563.4 + Mead Evap 27.1 + Mead Storage Change -218.8 + 
SNWP Use 15.9 - Lagged Powell Release 351) ~ 36.6

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FORECASTS (using the Ensemble Prediction System):

* All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value *

Lake Mead Intervening Flow:

May - July Forecasts

	  May        70  KAF ( 80% of average)
          June       61  KAF (104% of average)
          July       68  KAF (100% of average)


Lake Mead Adjusted Intervening Flow:

May - July Forecasts

	  May        40.6  KAF
          June       32.5  KAF
          July       61.4  KAF


Equation Used for Adjusted Flow: 

Inflow(BOR) = Inflow(NWS) + Evap(BOR) - Evap(NWS) + BankStorageChange(BOR)

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Tributaries:

           Virgin River
           nr Littlefield

	   May  13.2 KAF ( 55% of average)
           Jun   4.6 KAF ( 45% of average)
           Jul   7.1 KAF (100% of average)
	   
          Little Colorado
           nr Cameron

	   May   1.2 KAF ( 33% of average)
           Jun   0.2 KAF (111% of average)
           Jul   6.3 KAF (100% of average)
        
          Paria Creek
           nr Lees Ferry

	   May   0.2 KAF ( 31% of average)
           Jun   0.4 KAF ( 90% of average)
           Jul   1.0 KAF (101% of average)

       * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * 

$$

Finch/CBRFC