SLCESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
June 15, 2020


The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local 
(or intervening flow).

Forecasts include monthly values for June - August.

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June 1-14 OBSERVED (EST.) CBRFC LML INFLOW:  
                       - values in KAF -

(Mead Release 454.3 + Mead Evap 28.2 + Mead Storage Change -167.7 + 
SNWP Use 13.0 - Lagged Powell Release 303.0) ~ 24.8

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FORECASTS (using the Ensemble Prediction System):

* All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value *

Lake Mead Intervening Flow:

June - August Forecasts

	  June       56  KAF ( 95% of average)
          July       68  KAF (100% of average)
          August     90  KAF (100% of average)


Lake Mead Adjusted Intervening Flow:

June - August Forecasts

	  June       26.7  KAF
          July       60.7  KAF
          August     98.5  KAF


Equation Used for Adjusted Flow: 

Inflow(BOR) = Inflow(NWS) + Evap(BOR) - Evap(NWS) + BankStorageChange(BOR)

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Tributaries:

           Virgin River
           nr Littlefield

	   Jun   6.3 KAF ( 62% of average)
           Jul   7.1 KAF (100% of average)
           Aug   9.1 KAF (100% of average)
	   
          Little Colorado
           nr Cameron

	   Jun   0.2 KAF (111% of average)
           Jul   6.3 KAF (100% of average)
           Aug  19.3 KAF (100% of average)
        
          Paria Creek
           nr Lees Ferry

	   Jun   0.2 KAF ( 45% of average)
           Jul   1.0 KAF (101% of average)
           Aug   2.4 KAF (100% of average)

       * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * 

$$

Finch/CBRFC