SLCESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
July 1, 2020


The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local 
(or intervening flow).

Forecasts include monthly values for July - September.

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June 1-30 OBSERVED (EST.) CBRFC LML INFLOW:  
                       - values in KAF -

(Mead Release 973.3 + Mead Evap 60.3 + Mead Storage Change -365.8 + 
SNWP Use 32.0 - Lagged Powell Release 645.7) ~ 54.1

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FORECASTS (using the Ensemble Prediction System):

* All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value *

Lake Mead Intervening Flow:

July - September Forecasts

	  July       68  KAF (100% of average)
          August     90  KAF (100% of average)
          September  76  KAF (100% of average)


Lake Mead Adjusted Intervening Flow:

July - September Forecasts

	  July       60.7  KAF
          August     98.5  KAF
          September  62.9  KAF


Equation Used for Adjusted Flow: 

Inflow(BOR) = Inflow(NWS) + Evap(BOR) - Evap(NWS) + BankStorageChange(BOR)

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Tributaries:

           Virgin River
           nr Littlefield

	   Jul   7.1 KAF (100% of average)
           Aug   9.1 KAF (100% of average)
           Sep   9.7 KAF (100% of average)
	   
          Little Colorado
           nr Cameron

	   Jul   6.3 KAF (100% of average)
           Aug  19.3 KAF (100% of average)
           Sep  13.9 KAF (100% of average)
        
          Paria Creek
           nr Lees Ferry

	   Jul   1.0 KAF (101% of average)
           Aug   2.4 KAF (100% of average)
           Sep   2.4 KAF (101% of average)

       * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * 

$$

Finch/CBRFC