SLCESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
August 17, 2020


The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local 
(or Intervening Flow).

Forecasts include monthly values for August - October.

-------------------------------------------------------------------
August 1-16 OBSERVED (EST.) CBRFC LML INFLOW:  
                       - values in KAF -

(Mead Release 460.7 + Mead Evap 33.7 + Mead Storage Change -54.8 + 
SNWP Use 18.2 - Lagged Powell Release 429.0) ~ 28.8

-------------------------------------------------------------------
FORECASTS:

* All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value *

Lake Mead Intervening Flow:

	  August     65  KAF ( 72% of average)
          September  76  KAF (100% of average)
          October    76  KAF (100% of average)


Lake Mead Adjusted Intervening Flow:

	  August     71.7  KAF
          September  69.8  KAF
          October    56.8  KAF


Equation Used for Adjusted Flow: 

Inflow(BOR) = Inflow(NWS) + Evap(BOR) - Evap(NWS) + BankStorageChange(BOR)

-------------------------------------------------------------------
Tributaries:

           Virgin River
           nr Littlefield

	   Aug   5.4 KAF ( 60% of average)
           Sep   9.7 KAF (100% of average)
           Oct  11.3 KAF (100% of average)
	   
          Little Colorado
           nr Cameron

	   Aug   4.8 KAF ( 25% of average)
           Sep  13.9 KAF (100% of average)
           Oct   6.8 KAF (100% of average)
        
          Paria Creek
           nr Lees Ferry

	   Aug   0.8 KAF ( 33% of average)
           Sep   2.4 KAF (101% of average)
           Oct   2.0 KAF (101% of average)

       * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * 

$$

Finch/CBRFC