SLCESPAZ NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH September 16, 2020 The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local (or Intervening Flow). Forecasts include monthly values for September - November. ------------------------------------------------------------------- September 1-15 OBSERVED (EST.) CBRFC LML INFLOW: - values in KAF - (Mead Release 309.5 + Mead Evap 31.0 + Mead Storage Change -18.6 + SNWP Use 14.1 - Lagged Powell Release 311.0) ~ 25.0 ------------------------------------------------------------------- FORECASTS: * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * Lake Mead Intervening Flow: September 55 KAF ( 72% of average) October 76 KAF (100% of average) November 71 KAF (100% of average) Lake Mead Adjusted Intervening Flow: September 48.0 KAF October 57.0 KAF November 63.1 KAF Equation Used for Adjusted Flow: Inflow(BOR) = Inflow(NWS) + Evap(BOR) - Evap(NWS) + BankStorageChange(BOR) ------------------------------------------------------------------- Tributaries: Virgin River nr Littlefield Sep 6.2 KAF ( 64% of average) Oct 11.3 KAF (100% of average) Nov 11.9 KAF (100% of average) Little Colorado nr Cameron Sep 3.5 KAF ( 25% of average) Oct 6.8 KAF (100% of average) Nov 3.7 KAF (100% of average) Paria Creek nr Lees Ferry Sep 0.9 KAF ( 38% of average) Oct 2.0 KAF (101% of average) Nov 1.3 KAF (98% of average) * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * $$ Finch/CBRFC