SLCESPAZ NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH October 1, 2019 The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local (LML, or intervening flow). Forecasts include monthly values for October - December. ------------------------------------------------------------------- September 1-30 OBSERVED (EST.) CBRFC LML INFLOW: - values in KAF - (Mead Release 695.8 + Mead Evap 61.9 + Mead Storage Change -37.8 + SNWP Use 32.0 - Lagged Powell Release 705.6) ~ 46.3 ------------------------------------------------------------------- FORECASTS (using the Ensemble Prediction System): * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * Lake Mead Intervening Flow: October - December Forecasts October 76 KAF (100% of average) November 70 KAF (100% of average) December 74 KAF ( 90% of average) Lake Mead Adjusted Intervening Flow: October - December Forecasts October 61.8 KAF November 69.7 KAF December 97.8 KAF Equation Used for Adjusted Flow: Inflow(BOR) = Inflow(NWS) + Evap(BOR) - Evap(NWS) + BankStorageChange(BOR) ------------------------------------------------------------------- Tributaries: Virgin River nr Littlefield Oct 11.3 KAF (100% of average) Nov 11.9 KAF (100% of average) Dec 13.7 KAF ( 83% of average) Little Colorado nr Cameron Oct 6.8 KAF (100% of average) Nov 3.7 KAF (100% of average) Dec 2.5 KAF ( 58% of average) Paria Creek nr Lees Ferry Oct 2.0 KAF (100% of average) Nov 1.3 KAF (100% of average) Dec 1.1 KAF ( 83% of average) * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * $$ Finch/CBRFC