SLCESPAZ NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH November 1, 2019 The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local (or intervening flow). Forecasts include monthly values for November - January. ------------------------------------------------------------------- October 1-31 OBSERVED (EST.) CBRFC LML INFLOW: - values in KAF - (Mead Release 626.4 + Mead Evap 56.1 + Mead Storage Change -32.7 + SNWP Use 24.0 - Lagged Powell Release 630.1) ~ 43.7 ------------------------------------------------------------------- FORECASTS (using the Ensemble Prediction System): * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * Lake Mead Intervening Flow: November - January Forecasts November 70 KAF (100% of average) December 73 KAF ( 89% of average) January 84 KAF ( 83% of average) Lake Mead Adjusted Intervening Flow: November - January Forecasts November 71.7 KAF December 93.9 KAF January 96.6 KAF Equation Used for Adjusted Flow: Inflow(BOR) = Inflow(NWS) + Evap(BOR) - Evap(NWS) + BankStorageChange(BOR) ------------------------------------------------------------------- Tributaries: Virgin River nr Littlefield Nov 11.9 KAF (100% of average) Dec 13.4 KAF ( 81% of average) Jan 14.7 KAF ( 82% of average) Little Colorado nr Cameron Nov 3.7 KAF (100% of average) Dec 2.3 KAF ( 53% of average) Jan 8.4 KAF ( 59% of average) Paria Creek nr Lees Ferry Nov 1.3 KAF (100% of average) Dec 1.1 KAF ( 83% of average) Jan 1.3 KAF ( 81% of average) * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * $$ Finch/CBRFC