SLCESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
November 18, 2019


The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local 
(or intervening flow).

Forecasts include monthly values for November - January.

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November 1-17 OBSERVED (EST.) CBRFC LML INFLOW:  
                       - values in KAF -

(Mead Release 320.3 + Mead Evap 27.9 + Mead Storage Change 42.8 + 
SNWP Use 7.3 - Lagged Powell Release 355.0) ~ 43.3

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FORECASTS (using the Ensemble Prediction System):

* All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value *

Lake Mead Intervening Flow:

November - January Forecasts

	   November   80  KAF (113% of average)
	   December   76  KAF ( 93% of average)
           January    86  KAF ( 84% of average)


Lake Mead Adjusted Intervening Flow:

November - January Forecasts

	  November   78.8  KAF
	  December   95.0  KAF
          January    99.6  KAF


Equation Used for Adjusted Flow: 

Inflow(BOR) = Inflow(NWS) + Evap(BOR) - Evap(NWS) + BankStorageChange(BOR)

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Tributaries:

           Virgin River
           nr Littlefield

	   Nov 10.0 KAF (84% of average)
	   Dec 13.8 KAF (83% of average)
           Jan 15.3 KAF (85% of average)
	   
          Little Colorado
           nr Cameron

	   Nov  2.4 KAF (65% of average)
	   Dec  3.1 KAF (72% of average)
           Jan  9.1 KAF (64% of average)
        
          Paria Creek
           nr Lees Ferry

	   Nov  1.6 KAF (121% of average)
	   Dec  1.2 KAF ( 90% of average)
           Jan  1.4 KAF ( 87% of average)

       * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * 

$$

Finch/CBRFC