SLCESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
January 1, 2021


The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local 
(or Intervening Flow).

Forecasts include monthly values for January - March.

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December 1-31 OBSERVED (EST.) CBRFC LML INFLOW:  
                       - values in KAF -

(Mead Release 497.1 + Mead Evap 40.4 + Mead Storage Change 221.8 + 
SNWP Use 9.0 - Lagged Powell Release 712.0) ~ 56.3

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FORECASTS:

* All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value *

Lake Mead Intervening Flow:

	  January    75  KAF (73% of average)
	  February   76  KAF (77% of average)
          March      93  KAF (75% of average)


Lake Mead Adjusted Intervening Flow:

	  January    92.1  KAF
	  February   83.5  KAF
          March      75.5  KAF


Equation Used for Adjusted Flow: 

Inflow(BOR) = Inflow(NWS) + Evap(BOR) - Evap(NWS) + BankStorageChange(BOR)

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Tributaries:

           Virgin River
           nr Littlefield

	   Jan 10.8 KAF (60% of average)
	   Feb 10.8 KAF (71% of average)
           Mar 15.7 KAF (71% of average)
	   
          Little Colorado
           nr Cameron

	   Jan  4.9 KAF (35% of average)
	   Feb  6.3 KAF (40% of average)
           Mar 12.0 KAF (44% of average)
        
          Paria Creek
           nr Lees Ferry

	   Jan  1.0 KAF (62% of average)
	   Feb  1.6 KAF (88% of average)
           Mar  1.8 KAF (83% of average)

       * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * 

$$

Finch/CBRFC