SLCESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
January 19, 2021


The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local 
(or Intervening Flow).

Forecasts include monthly values for January - March.

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January 1-18 OBSERVED (EST.) CBRFC LML INFLOW:  
                       - values in KAF -

(Mead Release 325.5 + Mead Evap 19.6 + Mead Storage Change 124.1 + 
SNWP Use 6.7 - Lagged Powell Release 440.0) ~ 35.9

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FORECASTS:

* All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value *

Lake Mead Intervening Flow:

	  January    73  KAF (72% of average)
	  February   74  KAF (76% of average)
          March      98  KAF (80% of average)


Lake Mead Adjusted Intervening Flow:

	  January    82.6  KAF
	  February   78.6  KAF
          March      81.6  KAF


Equation Used for Adjusted Flow: 

Inflow(BOR) = Inflow(NWS) + Evap(BOR) - Evap(NWS) + BankStorageChange(BOR)

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Tributaries:

           Virgin River
           nr Littlefield

	   Jan  9.7 KAF (54% of average)
	   Feb 11.2 KAF (73% of average)
           Mar 17.3 KAF (79% of average)
	   
          Little Colorado
           nr Cameron

	   Jan  2.1 KAF (15% of average)
	   Feb  6.3 KAF (40% of average)
           Mar 12.8 KAF (47% of average)
        
          Paria Creek
           nr Lees Ferry

	   Jan  0.9 KAF (56% of average)
	   Feb  1.3 KAF (71% of average)
           Mar  1.9 KAF (87% of average)

       * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * 

$$

Finch/CBRFC