SLCESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
February 1, 2021


The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local 
(or Intervening Flow).

Forecasts include monthly values for February - April.

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January 1-31 OBSERVED (EST.) CBRFC LML INFLOW:  
                       - values in KAF -

(Mead Release 592.6 + Mead Evap 33.7 + Mead Storage Change 188.5 + 
SNWP Use 13.0 - Lagged Powell Release 764.5) ~ 63.3

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FORECASTS:

* All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value *

Lake Mead Intervening Flow:

	  February   67  KAF (68% of average)
          March      83  KAF (68% of average)
          April      66  KAF (68% of average)


Lake Mead Adjusted Intervening Flow:

	  February   76.6  KAF
          March      66.6  KAF
          April      43.4  KAF


Equation Used for Adjusted Flow: 

Inflow(BOR) = Inflow(NWS) + Evap(BOR) - Evap(NWS) + BankStorageChange(BOR)

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Tributaries:

           Virgin River
           nr Littlefield

	   Feb  8.9 KAF (58% of average)
           Mar 15.4 KAF (70% of average)
           Apr 14.6 KAF (68% of average)
	   
          Little Colorado
           nr Cameron

	   Feb  5.9 KAF (38% of average)
           Mar 12.5 KAF (46% of average)
           Apr  7.3 KAF (42% of average)
        
          Paria Creek
           nr Lees Ferry

	   Feb  1.2 KAF (66% of average)
           Mar  1.8 KAF (83% of average)
           Apr  1.1 KAF (99% of average)

       * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * 

$$

Finch/CBRFC