SLCESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
February 15, 2021


The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local 
(or Intervening Flow).

Forecasts include monthly values for February - April.

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February 1-14 OBSERVED (EST.) CBRFC LML INFLOW:  
                       - values in KAF -

(Mead Release 225.9 + Mead Evap 15.7 + Mead Storage Change 119.3 + 
SNWP Use 3.4 - Lagged Powell Release 336.0) ~ 28.3

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FORECASTS:

* All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value *

Lake Mead Intervening Flow:

	  February   62  KAF (63% of average)
          March      84  KAF (69% of average)
          April      70  KAF (73% of average)


Lake Mead Adjusted Intervening Flow:

	  February   71.6  KAF
          March      66.6  KAF
          April      47.4  KAF


Equation Used for Adjusted Flow: 

Inflow(BOR) = Inflow(NWS) + Evap(BOR) - Evap(NWS) + BankStorageChange(BOR)

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Tributaries:

           Virgin River
           nr Littlefield

	   Feb  8.0 KAF (52% of average)
           Mar 14.3 KAF (65% of average)
           Apr 14.4 KAF (67% of average)
	   
          Little Colorado
           nr Cameron

	   Feb  2.8 KAF (18% of average)
           Mar 10.8 KAF (39% of average)
           Apr  6.9 KAF (40% of average)
        
          Paria Creek
           nr Lees Ferry

	   Feb  1.0 KAF (55% of average)
           Mar  1.6 KAF (74% of average)
           Apr  1.0 KAF (90% of average)

       * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * 

$$

Finch/CBRFC