SLCESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
April 1, 2021


The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local 
(or Intervening Flow).

Forecasts include monthly values for April - June.

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March 1-31 OBSERVED (EST.) CBRFC LML INFLOW:  
                       - values in KAF -

(Mead Release 945.3 + Mead Evap 36.1 + Mead Storage Change -243.6 + 
SNWP Use 16.0 - Lagged Powell Release 696.3) ~ 57.5

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FORECASTS:

* All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value *

Lake Mead Intervening Flow:

	  April      63  KAF (65% of average)
          May        60  KAF (69% of average)
          June       49  KAF (83% of average)


Lake Mead Adjusted Intervening Flow:

	  April      47.5  KAF
          May        32.4  KAF
          June       24.0  KAF


Equation Used for Adjusted Flow: 

Inflow(BOR) = Inflow(NWS) + Evap(BOR) - Evap(NWS) + BankStorageChange(BOR)

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Tributaries:

           Virgin River
           nr Littlefield

	   Apr  11.0 KAF (51% of average)
           May  10.9 KAF (45% of average)
           June  5.9 KAF (58% of average)
	   
          Little Colorado
           nr Cameron

	   Apr  5.3 KAF (30% of average)
           May  1.2 KAF (33% of average)
           June 0.1 KAF (50% of average)
        
          Paria Creek
           nr Lees Ferry

	   Apr  0.7 KAF (63% of average)
           May  0.3 KAF (46% of average)
           June 0.2 KAF (45% of average)

       * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * 

$$

Finch/CBRFC