SLCESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
April 15, 2021


The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local 
(or Intervening Flow).

Forecasts include monthly values for April - June.

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April 1-14 OBSERVED (EST.) CBRFC LML INFLOW:  
                       - values in KAF -

(Mead Release 459.5 + Mead Evap 17.4 + Mead Storage Change -160.6 + 
SNWP Use 8.9 - Lagged Powell Release 302) ~ 23.2

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FORECASTS:

* All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value *

Lake Mead Intervening Flow:

	  April      55  KAF (57% of average)
          May        59  KAF (68% of average)
          June       49  KAF (82% of average)


Lake Mead Adjusted Intervening Flow:

	  April      32.7  KAF
          May        32.6  KAF
          June       22.3  KAF


Equation Used for Adjusted Flow: 

Inflow(BOR) = Inflow(NWS) + Evap(BOR) - Evap(NWS) + BankStorageChange(BOR)

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Tributaries:

           Virgin River
           nr Littlefield

	   Apr  7.3 KAF (51% of average)
           May  9.4 KAF (45% of average)
           Jun  5.8 KAF (58% of average)
	   
          Little Colorado
           nr Cameron

	   Apr  2.8 KAF (16% of average)
           May  1.8 KAF (50% of average)
           Jun  0.1 KAF (50% of average)
        
          Paria Creek
           nr Lees Ferry

	   Apr  0.4 KAF (36% of average)
           May  0.3 KAF (46% of average)
           Jun  0.2 KAF (45% of average)

       * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * 

$$

Finch/CBRFC