SLCESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
May 16, 2021


The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local 
(or Intervening Flow).

Forecasts include monthly values for May - July.

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May 1-15 OBSERVED (EST.) CBRFC LML INFLOW:  
                       - values in KAF -

(Mead Release 537.5 + Mead Evap 22.3 + Mead Storage Change -233.3 + 
SNWP Use 12.6 - Lagged Powell Release 313.0) ~ 26.1

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FORECASTS:

* All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value *

Lake Mead Intervening Flow:

	  May        54  KAF ( 64% of average)
          June       48  KAF ( 83% of average)
          July       73  KAF (100% of average)


Lake Mead Adjusted Intervening Flow:

	  May        22.9  KAF
          June       20.7  KAF
          July       68.0  KAF


Equation Used for Adjusted Flow: 

Inflow(BOR) = Inflow(NWS) + Evap(BOR) - Evap(NWS) + BankStorageChange(BOR)

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Tributaries:

           Virgin River
           nr Littlefield

	   May  6.6 KAF ( 27% of average)
           Jun  5.5 KAF ( 54% of average)
           Jul  7.1 KAF (100% of average)
	   
          Little Colorado
           nr Cameron

	   May  1.3 KAF ( 36% of average)
           Jun  0.5 KAF (110% of average)
           Jul  6.3 KAF (100% of average)
        
          Paria Creek
           nr Lees Ferry

	   May  0.1 KAF ( 15% of average)
           Jun  0.2 KAF ( 45% of average)
           Jul  1.0 KAF (101% of average)

       * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * 

$$

Finch/CBRFC