SLCESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
June 16, 2021


The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local 
(or Intervening Flow).

Forecasts include monthly values for June - August.

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June 1-15 OBSERVED (EST.) CBRFC LML INFLOW:  
                       - values in KAF -

(Mead Release 472.6 + Mead Evap 28.0 + Mead Storage Change -219.7 + 
SNWP Use 15.1 - Lagged Powell Release 291) ~ 5.0

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FORECASTS:

* All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value *

Lake Mead Intervening Flow:

	  June       27  KAF ( 47% of average)
          July       73  KAF (100% of average)
          August     85  KAF (100% of average)


Lake Mead Adjusted Intervening Flow:

	  June        0.1  KAF
          July       66.4  KAF
          August     91.3  KAF


Equation Used for Adjusted Flow: 

Inflow(BOR) = Inflow(NWS) + Evap(BOR) - Evap(NWS) + BankStorageChange(BOR)

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Tributaries:

           Virgin River
           nr Littlefield

	   Jun   4.2 KAF ( 41% of average)
           Jul   7.1 KAF (100% of average)
           Aug   9.1 KAF (100% of average)
	   
          Little Colorado
           nr Cameron

	   Jun   0.1 KAF ( 56% of average)
           Jul   6.3 KAF (100% of average)
           Aug  19.3 KAF (100% of average)
        
          Paria Creek
           nr Lees Ferry

	   Jun   0.2 KAF ( 45% of average)
           Jul   1.0 KAF (101% of average)
           Aug   2.4 KAF (100% of average)

       * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * 

$$

Finch/CBRFC