SLCESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
August 15, 2021


The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local 
(or Intervening Flow).

Forecasts include monthly values for August - October.

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August 1-14 OBSERVED (EST.) CBRFC LML INFLOW:  
                       - values in KAF -

(Mead Release 361.9 + Mead Evap 27.4 + Mead Storage Change 0.8 + 
SNWP Use 11.2 - Lagged Powell Release 354.0) ~ 47.3

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FORECASTS:

* All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value *

Lake Mead Intervening Flow:

	      August     94  KAF (111% of average)
          September  79  KAF (100% of average)
          October    69  KAF (100% of average)


Lake Mead Adjusted Intervening Flow:

	      August     97.3  KAF
          September  70.4  KAF
          October    51.0  KAF


Equation Used for Adjusted Flow: 

Inflow(BOR) = Inflow(NWS) + Evap(BOR) - Evap(NWS) + BankStorageChange(BOR)

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Tributaries:

           Virgin River
           nr Littlefield

	       Aug   6.7 KAF ( 74% of average)
           Sep   9.7 KAF (100% of average)
           Oct  11.3 KAF (100% of average)
	   
          Little Colorado
           nr Cameron

	       Aug  24.9 KAF (129% of average)
           Sep  13.9 KAF (100% of average)
           Oct   6.8 KAF (100% of average)
        
          Paria Creek
           nr Lees Ferry

	       Aug   2.0 KAF ( 84% of average)
           Sep   2.4 KAF (101% of average)
           Oct   2.0 KAF (101% of average)

       * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * 

$$

Miller/CBRFC