SLCESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
September 1, 2021


The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local 
(or Intervening Flow).

Forecasts include monthly values for September - November.

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August 1-31 OBSERVED (EST.) CBRFC LML INFLOW:  
                       - values in KAF -

(Mead Release 766.5 + Mead Evap 67.0 + Mead Storage Change 1.0 + 
SNWP Use 29.0 - Lagged Powell Release 798.0) ~ 65.5

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FORECASTS:

* All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value *

Lake Mead Intervening Flow:

	  September  79  KAF ( 100% of average)
          October    69  KAF (100% of average)
          November   66  KAF (100% of average)


Lake Mead Adjusted Intervening Flow:

	  September  66.4  KAF
          October    51.0  KAF
          November   53.9  KAF


Equation Used for Adjusted Flow: 

Inflow(BOR) = Inflow(NWS) + Evap(BOR) - Evap(NWS) + BankStorageChange(BOR)

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Tributaries:

           Virgin River
           nr Littlefield

	   Sep   9.7 KAF (100% of average)
           Oct  11.3 KAF (100% of average)
           Nov  11.9 KAF (100% of average)
	   
          Little Colorado
           nr Cameron

	   Sep   13.9 KAF (100% of average)
           Oct   6.8 KAF (100% of average)
           Nov   3.7 KAF (100% of average)
        
          Paria Creek
           nr Lees Ferry

	   Sep   2.4 KAF (101% of average)
           Oct   2.0 KAF (101% of average)
           Nov   1.3 KAF (98% of average)

       * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * 

$$

Finch/CBRFC