SLCESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
September 16, 2021


The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local 
(or Intervening Flow).

Forecasts include monthly values for September - November.

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September 1-15 OBSERVED (EST.) CBRFC LML INFLOW:  
                       - values in KAF -

(Mead Release 330.1 + Mead Evap 29.1 + Mead Storage Change -28.3 + 
SNWP Use 11.9 - Lagged Powell Release 327.0) ~ 15.8

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FORECASTS:

* All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value *

Lake Mead Intervening Flow:

	  September  56  KAF (71% of average)
          October    69  KAF (100% of average)
          November   66  KAF (100% of average)


Lake Mead Adjusted Intervening Flow:

	  September  51.9  KAF
          October    48.7  KAF
          November   54.6  KAF


Equation Used for Adjusted Flow: 

Inflow(BOR) = Inflow(NWS) + Evap(BOR) - Evap(NWS) + BankStorageChange(BOR)

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Tributaries:

           Virgin River
           nr Littlefield

	   Sep   6.8 KAF (70% of average)
           Oct  11.3 KAF (100% of average)
           Nov  11.9 KAF (100% of average)
	   
          Little Colorado
           nr Cameron

	   Sep   8.3 KAF (60% of average)
           Oct   6.8 KAF (100% of average)
           Nov   3.7 KAF (100% of average)
        
          Paria Creek
           nr Lees Ferry

	   Sep   2.5 KAF (106% of average)
           Oct   2.0 KAF (101% of average)
           Nov   1.3 KAF (98% of average)

       * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * 

$$

Miller/CBRFC