SLCESPAZ NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH October 15, 2020 The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local (or Intervening Flow). Forecasts include monthly values for October - December. ------------------------------------------------------------------- October 1-14 OBSERVED (EST.) CBRFC LML INFLOW: - values in KAF - (Mead Release 297.8 + Mead Evap 25.3 + Mead Storage Change -20.1 + SNWP Use 9.9 - Lagged Powell Release 288.0) ~ 24.9 ------------------------------------------------------------------- FORECASTS: * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * Lake Mead Intervening Flow: October 61 KAF (80% of average) November 65 KAF (92% of average) December 74 KAF (90% of average) Lake Mead Adjusted Intervening Flow: October 42.0 KAF November 56.2 KAF December 89.5 KAF Equation Used for Adjusted Flow: Inflow(BOR) = Inflow(NWS) + Evap(BOR) - Evap(NWS) + BankStorageChange(BOR) ------------------------------------------------------------------- Tributaries: Virgin River nr Littlefield Oct 7.5 KAF (67% of average) Nov 10.9 KAF (92% of average) Dec 13.8 KAF (83% of average) Little Colorado nr Cameron Oct 1.9 KAF (28% of average) Nov 1.9 KAF (51% of average) Dec 2.8 KAF (65% of average) Paria Creek nr Lees Ferry Oct 0.9 KAF (45% of average) Nov 1.1 KAF (83% of average) Dec 1.1 KAF (83% of average) * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * $$ Finch/CBRFC