SLCESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
November 16, 2020


The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local 
(or Intervening Flow).

Forecasts include monthly values for November - January.

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November 1-15 OBSERVED (EST.) CBRFC LML INFLOW:  
                       - values in KAF -

(Mead Release 369.5 + Mead Evap 24.4 + Mead Storage Change -46.7 + 
SNWP Use 5.7 - Lagged Powell Release 320.0) ~ 32.9

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FORECASTS:

* All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value *

Lake Mead Intervening Flow:

	  November   68  KAF (96% of average)
	  December   71  KAF (87% of average)
          January    84  KAF (83% of average)


Lake Mead Adjusted Intervening Flow:

	  November   60.2  KAF
	  December   85.5  KAF
          January    99.0  KAF


Equation Used for Adjusted Flow: 

Inflow(BOR) = Inflow(NWS) + Evap(BOR) - Evap(NWS) + BankStorageChange(BOR)

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Tributaries:

           Virgin River
           nr Littlefield

	   Nov  7.5 KAF (63% of average)
	   Dec 12.6 KAF (76% of average)
           Jan 14.5 KAF (81% of average)
	   
          Little Colorado
           nr Cameron

	   Nov  0.9 KAF (24% of average)
	   Dec  2.4 KAF (55% of average)
           Jan  8.6 KAF (61% of average)
        
          Paria Creek
           nr Lees Ferry

	   Nov  0.9 KAF (68% of average)
	   Dec  1.1 KAF (83% of average)
           Jan  1.3 KAF (81% of average)

       * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * 

$$

Finch/CBRFC