SLCESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
December 1, 2020


The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local 
(or Intervening Flow).

Forecasts include monthly values for December - February.

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November 1-30 OBSERVED (EST.) CBRFC LML INFLOW:  
                       - values in KAF -

(Mead Release 714.4 + Mead Evap 48.7 + Mead Storage Change -67.6 + 
SNWP Use 12.0 - Lagged Powell Release 639.4) ~ 68.1

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FORECASTS:

* All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value *

Lake Mead Intervening Flow:

	  December   70  KAF (87% of average)
	  January    83  KAF (83% of average)
          February   83  KAF (97% of average)


Lake Mead Adjusted Intervening Flow:

	  December   87.5  KAF
	  January    98.0  KAF
          February   87.5  KAF


Equation Used for Adjusted Flow: 

Inflow(BOR) = Inflow(NWS) + Evap(BOR) - Evap(NWS) + BankStorageChange(BOR)

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Tributaries:

           Virgin River
           nr Littlefield

	   Dec 12.0 KAF (73% of average)
	   Jan 14.1 KAF (79% of average)
           Feb 12.9 KAF (84% of average)
	   
          Little Colorado
           nr Cameron

	   Dec  2.3 KAF (53% of average)
	   Jan  7.9 KAF (56% of average)
           Feb  9.7 KAF (62% of average)
        
          Paria Creek
           nr Lees Ferry

	   Dec  1.0 KAF (75% of average)
	   Jan  1.3 KAF (81% of average)
           Feb  1.8 KAF (99% of average)

       * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * 

$$

Finch/CBRFC