SLCESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
December 16, 2020


The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local 
(or Intervening Flow).

Forecasts include monthly values for December - February.

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December 1-15 OBSERVED (EST.) CBRFC LML INFLOW:  
                       - values in KAF -

(Mead Release 223.0 + Mead Evap 19.5 + Mead Storage Change 123.6 + 
SNWP Use 3.2 - Lagged Powell Release 345.0) ~ 24.3

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FORECASTS:

* All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value *

Lake Mead Intervening Flow:

	  December   59  KAF (72% of average)
	  January    82  KAF (80% of average)
          February   82  KAF (84% of average)


Lake Mead Adjusted Intervening Flow:

	  December   71.6  KAF
	  January    98.1  KAF
          February   89.5  KAF


Equation Used for Adjusted Flow: 

Inflow(BOR) = Inflow(NWS) + Evap(BOR) - Evap(NWS) + BankStorageChange(BOR)

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Tributaries:

           Virgin River
           nr Littlefield

	   Dec  9.8 KAF (59% of average)
	   Jan 13.4 KAF (75% of average)
           Feb 12.6 KAF (82% of average)
	   
          Little Colorado
           nr Cameron

	   Dec  1.2 KAF (28% of average)
	   Jan  7.3 KAF (52% of average)
           Feb  9.2 KAF (59% of average)
        
          Paria Creek
           nr Lees Ferry

	   Dec  0.8 KAF (60% of average)
	   Jan  1.3 KAF (81% of average)
           Feb  1.7 KAF (93% of average)

       * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * 

$$

Finch/CBRFC