SLCESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
January 18, 2022


The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local 
(or Intervening Flow).

Forecasts include monthly values for January - March.

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January 1-17 OBSERVED (EST.) CBRFC LML INFLOW:  
                       - values in KAF -

(Mead Release 313.7 + Mead Evap 17.2 + Mead Storage Change 59.5 + 
SNWP Use 4.2 - Lagged Powell Release 361.0) ~ 33.6

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FORECASTS:

* All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value *

Lake Mead Intervening Flow:

	  January    71  KAF (77% of average)
	  February   73  KAF (77% of average)
      March      95  KAF (84% of average)


Lake Mead Adjusted Intervening Flow:

	  January    74.7  KAF
	  February   73.0  KAF
      March      74.7  KAF


Equation Used for Adjusted Flow: 

Inflow(BOR) = Inflow(NWS) + Evap(BOR) - Evap(NWS) + BankStorageChange(BOR)

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Tributaries:

           Virgin River
           nr Littlefield

	   Jan 14.9 KAF (77% of average)
	   Feb 11.8 KAF (69% of average)
       Mar 18.2 KAF (74% of average)
	   
          Little Colorado
           nr Cameron

	   Jan  2.5 KAF (16% of average)
	   Feb  7.0 KAF (40% of average)
       Mar 12.4 KAF (47% of average)
        
          Paria Creek
           nr Lees Ferry

	   Jan  1.2 KAF (72% of average)
	   Feb  1.4 KAF (74% of average)
       Mar  2.0 KAF (86% of average)

       * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * 

$$

Grout, Miller/CBRFC