SLCESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
February 1, 2022


The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local 
(or Intervening Flow).

Forecasts include monthly values for February - April.

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January 1-31 OBSERVED (EST.) CBRFC LML INFLOW:  
                       - values in KAF -

(Mead Release 639.5 + Mead Evap 31.2 + Mead Storage Change 54.8 + 
SNWP Use 10.0 - Lagged Powell Release 669.6) ~ 66.0

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FORECASTS:

* All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value *

Lake Mead Intervening Flow:

	  February   68  KAF (73% of average)
	  March      89  KAF (78% of average)
      April      75  KAF (86% of average)


Lake Mead Adjusted Intervening Flow:

	  February   71.0  KAF
	  March      68.7  KAF
      April      45.0  KAF


Equation Used for Adjusted Flow: 

Inflow(BOR) = Inflow(NWS) + Evap(BOR) - Evap(NWS) + BankStorageChange(BOR)

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Tributaries:

           Virgin River
           nr Littlefield

	   Feb  8.9 KAF (57% of average)
	   Mar 16.7 KAF (78% of average)
       Apr 18.2 KAF (88% of average)
	   
          Little Colorado
           nr Cameron

	   Feb  6.2 KAF (35% of average)
	   Mar 14.6 KAF (54% of average)
       Apr  5.0 KAF (40% of average)
        
          Paria Creek
           nr Lees Ferry

	   Feb  1.3 KAF (68% of average)
	   Mar  1.7 KAF (73% of average)
       Apr  1.0 KAF (92% of average)

       * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * 

$$

Grout, Miller/CBRFC