SLCESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
May 1, 2022


The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local 
(or Intervening Flow).

Forecasts include monthly values for May - July.

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April 1-30 OBSERVED (EST.) CBRFC LML INFLOW:  
                       - values in KAF -

(Mead Release 1027.2 + Mead Evap 33.7 + Mead Storage Change -511 + 
SNWP Use 16.8 - Lagged Powell Release 507.7) ~ 59.1

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FORECASTS:

* All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value *

Lake Mead Intervening Flow:

	      May        61  KAF ( 72% of average)
          June       53  KAF ( 91% of average)
          July       73  KAF (100% of average)


Lake Mead Adjusted Intervening Flow:

	      May        34.9  KAF
          June       31.9  KAF
          July       61.5  KAF


Equation Used for Adjusted Flow: 

Inflow(BOR) = Inflow(NWS) + Evap(BOR) - Evap(NWS) + BankStorageChange(BOR)

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Tributaries:

           Virgin River
           nr Littlefield

	       May  9.9 KAF ( 43% of average)
           Jun  6.1 KAF ( 64% of average)
           Jul  6.6 KAF (100% of average)
	   
          Little Colorado
           nr Cameron

	       May  0.5 KAF ( 29% of average)
           Jun  0.0 KAF (  0% of average)
           Jul  5.7 KAF (100% of average)
        
          Paria Creek
           nr Lees Ferry

	       May  0.3 KAF ( 44% of average)
           Jun  0.2 KAF ( 45% of average)
           Jul  0.8 KAF ( 98% of average)

       * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * 
$$

Grout, Miller/CBRFC