SLCESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
July 17, 2022


The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local 
(or Intervening Flow).

Forecasts include monthly values for July - September.

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July 1-17 OBSERVED (EST.) CBRFC LML INFLOW:  
                       - values in KAF -

(Mead Release 472.6 + Mead Evap 29.3 + Mead Storage Change -116.2 + 
SNWP Use 17.6 - Lagged Powell Release 367.0) ~ 36.3

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FORECASTS:

* All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value *

Lake Mead Intervening Flow:

	      July        69  KAF ( 95% of average)
          August       85  KAF ( 100% of average)
          September       79  KAF (100% of average)


Lake Mead Adjusted Intervening Flow:

	      July        48.6  KAF
          August       75.8  KAF
          September       64.6  KAF


Equation Used for Adjusted Flow: 

Inflow(BOR) = Inflow(NWS) + Evap(BOR) - Evap(NWS) + BankStorageChange(BOR)

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Tributaries:

           Virgin River
           nr Littlefield

	       Jul 4.7 KAF ( 71% of average)
           Aug  7.9 KAF ( 100% of average)
           Sep  9.3 KAF (100% of average)
	   
          Little Colorado
           nr Cameron

	       Jul  3.8 KAF ( 67% of average)
           Aug  16.0 KAF (100% of average)
           Sep  11.5 KAF (100% of average)
        
          Paria Creek
           nr Lees Ferry

	       Jul  0.6 KAF ( 73% of average)
           Aug  2.2 KAF ( 100% of average)
           Sep  2.5 KAF ( 101% of average)

       * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * 
$$

Grout/CBRFC