SLCESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
August 17, 2022


The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local 
(or Intervening Flow).

Forecasts include monthly values for August - October.

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August 1-15 OBSERVED (EST.) CBRFC LML INFLOW:  
                       - values in KAF -

(Mead Release 293.4 + Mead Evap 26.0 + Mead Storage Change 89.5 + 
SNWP Use 10.7 - Lagged Powell Release 344.0) ~ 75.5

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FORECASTS:

* All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value *

Lake Mead Intervening Flow:

	      August    120   KAF (141% of average)
          September  79  KAF (100% of average)
          October    69  KAF (100% of average)


Lake Mead Adjusted Intervening Flow:

	      August    118.2  KAF
          September  69.0  KAF
          October    65.8  KAF


Equation Used for Adjusted Flow: 

Inflow(BOR) = Inflow(NWS) + Evap(BOR) - Evap(NWS) + BankStorageChange(BOR)

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Tributaries:

           Virgin River
           nr Littlefield

	       Aug   8.5 KAF (108% of average)
           Sep   9.3 KAF (100% of average)
           Oct  10.6 KAF (100% of average)
	   
          Little Colorado
           nr Cameron

	       Aug  46.1 KAF (288% of average)
           Sep  11.5 KAF (100% of average)
           Oct   6.3 KAF (101% of average)
        
          Paria Creek
           nr Lees Ferry

	       Aug   2.4 KAF (109% of average)
           Sep   2.5 KAF (101% of average)
           Oct   2.1 KAF ( 98% of average)

       * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * 

$$

Miller, Grout/CBRFC