SLCESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
September 1, 2022


The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local 
(or Intervening Flow).

Forecasts include monthly values for September - November.

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August 1-31 OBSERVED (EST.) CBRFC LML INFLOW:  
                       - values in KAF -

(Mead Release 573.4 + Mead Evap 54.4 + Mead Storage Change 234.2 + 
SNWP Use 25.3 - Lagged Powell Release 698.8) ~ 188.5

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FORECASTS:

* All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value *

Lake Mead Intervening Flow:

          September  79  KAF (100% of average)
          October    69  KAF (100% of average)
          November   66  KAF (100% of average)	

Lake Mead Adjusted Intervening Flow:

          September  58.0  KAF
          October    65.8  KAF
	  November   59.8  KAF

Equation Used for Adjusted Flow: 

Inflow(BOR) = Inflow(NWS) + Evap(BOR) - Evap(NWS) + BankStorageChange(BOR)

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Tributaries:

           Virgin River
           nr Littlefield

	   Sep   9.3 KAF (100% of average)
           Oct  10.6 KAF (100% of average)
           Nov  10.5 KAF (100% of average)
	   
          Little Colorado
           nr Cameron

	   Sep  11.5 KAF (100% of average)
           Oct   6.3 KAF (101% of average)
           Nov   2.3 KAF (100% of average)
        
          Paria Creek
           nr Lees Ferry

	   Sep   2.5 KAF (101% of average)
           Oct   2.1 KAF (98% of average)
           Nov   1.2 KAF (97% of average)

       * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * 

$$

Grout, Miller/CBRFC