SLCESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
September 16, 2022


The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local 
(or Intervening Flow).

Forecasts include monthly values for September - November.

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September 1-15 OBSERVED (EST.) CBRFC LML INFLOW:  
                       - values in KAF -

(Mead Release 312.2 + Mead Evap 25.9 + Mead Storage Change -19.0 + 
SNWP Use 11.3 - Lagged Powell Release 294.0) ~ 36.4

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FORECASTS:

* All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value *

Lake Mead Intervening Flow:

          September  76  KAF (96% of average)
          October    69  KAF (100% of average)
          November   66  KAF (100% of average)	

Lake Mead Adjusted Intervening Flow:

          September  71.1  KAF
          October    63.1  KAF
	  November   58.3  KAF

Equation Used for Adjusted Flow: 

Inflow(BOR) = Inflow(NWS) + Evap(BOR) - Evap(NWS) + BankStorageChange(BOR)

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Tributaries:

           Virgin River
           nr Littlefield

	   Sep  13.7 KAF (148% of average)
           Oct  10.6 KAF (100% of average)
           Nov  10.5 KAF (100% of average)
	   
          Little Colorado
           nr Cameron

	   Sep  14.5 KAF (126% of average)
           Oct   6.3 KAF (101% of average)
           Nov   2.3 KAF (100% of average)
        
          Paria Creek
           nr Lees Ferry

	   Sep   1.8 KAF (72% of average)
           Oct   2.1 KAF (98% of average)
           Nov   1.2 KAF (97% of average)

       * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * 

$$

Grout, Miller/CBRFC