SLCESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
January 1, 2023


The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local 
(or Intervening Flow).

Forecasts include monthly values for November - January.

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December 1-31 OBSERVED (EST.) CBRFC LML INFLOW:  
                       - values in KAF -

(Mead Release 438.2 + Mead Evap 33.8 + Mead Storage Change 126.3 + 
SNWP Use 9.4 - Lagged Powell Release 548.0) ~ 59.7

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FORECASTS:

* All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value *

Lake Mead Intervening Flow:

          January   91  KAF (99% of average)
          February  82  KAF (87% of average)
          March    103  KAF (90% of average)	

Lake Mead Adjusted Intervening Flow:

          January  87.9  KAF
          February   76.1  KAF
	  March  73.4  KAF

Equation Used for Adjusted Flow: 

Inflow(BOR) = Inflow(NWS) + Evap(BOR) - Evap(NWS) + BankStorageChange(BOR)

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Tributaries:

           Virgin River
           nr Littlefield

	   Jan  19.7 KAF (114% of average)
           Feb  13.1 KAF (84% of average)
           Mar  19.4 KAF (91% of average)
	   
          Little Colorado
           nr Cameron

	   Jan   9.3 KAF (61% of average)
           Feb   8.0 KAF (45% of average)
           Mar  19.8 KAF (73% of average)
        
          Paria Creek
           nr Lees Ferry

	   Jan   2.0 KAF (120% of average)
           Feb   1.6 KAF (84% of average)
           Mar   2.0 KAF (86% of average)

       * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * 

$$

Grout, Miller/CBRFC