SLCESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
January 18, 2023


The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local 
(or Intervening Flow).

Forecasts include monthly values for January - March.

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January 1-16 OBSERVED (EST.) CBRFC LML INFLOW:  
                       - values in KAF -

(Mead Release 230.6 + Mead Evap 14.6 + Mead Storage Change 56.48 + 
SNWP Use 2.47 - Lagged Powell Release 262.0) ~ 42.2

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FORECASTS:

* All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value *

Lake Mead Intervening Flow:

          January   92  KAF (100% of average)
          February  92  KAF (97% of average)
          March    113  KAF (99% of average)	

Lake Mead Adjusted Intervening Flow:

          January  91.8  KAF
          February   87.9  KAF
	  March  80.4  KAF

Equation Used for Adjusted Flow: 

Inflow(BOR) = Inflow(NWS) + Evap(BOR) - Evap(NWS) + BankStorageChange(BOR)

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Tributaries:

           Virgin River
           nr Littlefield

	   Jan  32.3 KAF (186% of average)
           Feb  17.1 KAF (110% of average)
           Mar  23.0 KAF (108% of average)
	   
          Little Colorado
           nr Cameron

	   Jan   9.1 KAF (60% of average)
           Feb  14.6 KAF (83% of average)
           Mar  27.9 KAF (102% of average)
        
          Paria Creek
           nr Lees Ferry

	   Jan   1.9 KAF (114% of average)
           Feb   2.2 KAF (116% of average)
           Mar   2.2 KAF (94% of average)

       * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * 

$$

Grout, Miller/CBRFC