SLCESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
October 19, 2022


The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local 
(or Intervening Flow).

Forecasts include monthly values for September - November.

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October 1-18 OBSERVED (EST.) CBRFC LML INFLOW:  
                       - values in KAF -
(Mead Release 269.3  + Mead Evap 27.4 + Mead Storage Change 34.6 + 
SNWP Use 10.2 - Lagged Powell Release 288.0) ~ 53.6

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FORECASTS:

* All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value *

Lake Mead Intervening Flow:

          October  87 KAF (126% of average)
          November    63  KAF (95% of average)
          December   67  KAF (93% of average)	

Lake Mead Adjusted Intervening Flow:

          October  84.7  KAF
          November    52.2  KAF
	  December   77.1  KAF

Equation Used for Adjusted Flow: 

Inflow(BOR) = Inflow(NWS) + Evap(BOR) - Evap(NWS) + BankStorageChange(BOR)

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Tributaries:

           Virgin River
           nr Littlefield

	   Oct  8.0 KAF (75% of average)
           Nov   9.2 KAF (87% of average)
           Dec  12.4 KAF (79% of average)
	   
          Little Colorado
           nr Cameron

	   Oct   29.5 KAF (471% of average)
           Nov   1.3 KAF (57% of average)
           Dec   1.8 KAF (54% of average)
        
          Paria Creek
           nr Lees Ferry

	   Oct   1.8 KAF (84% of average)
           Nov   1.1 KAF (89% of average)
           Dec   1.2 KAF (95% of average)

       * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * 

$$

Grout, Miller/CBRFC