SLCESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
November 17, 2022


The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local 
(or Intervening Flow).

Forecasts include monthly values for November - January.

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November 1-16 OBSERVED (EST.) CBRFC LML INFLOW:  
                       - values in KAF -

(Mead Release 404.4 + Mead Evap 21.9 + Mead Storage Change -141.9 + 
SNWP Use 4.4 - Lagged Powell Release 263.0) ~ 25.8

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FORECASTS:

* All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value *

Lake Mead Intervening Flow:

          November  57  KAF (86% of average)
          December    67  KAF (93% of average)
          January   77  KAF (84% of average)	

Lake Mead Adjusted Intervening Flow:

          November  51.9  KAF
          December    75.9  KAF
	  January   78.5  KAF

Equation Used for Adjusted Flow: 

Inflow(BOR) = Inflow(NWS) + Evap(BOR) - Evap(NWS) + BankStorageChange(BOR)

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Tributaries:

           Virgin River
           nr Littlefield

	   Nov  10.4 KAF (99% of average)
           Dec  13.5 KAF (86% of average)
           Jan  13.7 KAF (79% of average)
	   
          Little Colorado
           nr Cameron

	   Nov   0.6 KAF (26% of average)
           Dec   1.7 KAF (51% of average)
           Jan   8.6 KAF (56% of average)
        
          Paria Creek
           nr Lees Ferry

	   Nov   0.8 KAF (65% of average)
           Dec   1.1 KAF (87% of average)
           Jan   1.3 KAF (78% of average)

       * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * 

$$

Grout, Miller/CBRFC