SLCESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
December 1, 2022


The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local 
(or Intervening Flow).

Forecasts include monthly values for November - January.

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November 1-30 OBSERVED (EST.) CBRFC LML INFLOW:  
                       - values in KAF -

(Mead Release 712.9 + Mead Evap 40.9 + Mead Storage Change -229.5 + 
SNWP Use 9.3 - Lagged Powell Release 492.9) ~ 40.7

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FORECASTS:

* All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value *

Lake Mead Intervening Flow:

          December 73   KAF (102% of average)
          January    82  KAF (89% of average)
          February   84  KAF (89% of average)	

Lake Mead Adjusted Intervening Flow:

          December  86.9  KAF
          January   83.5  KAF
	  February  85.5  KAF

Equation Used for Adjusted Flow: 

Inflow(BOR) = Inflow(NWS) + Evap(BOR) - Evap(NWS) + BankStorageChange(BOR)

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Tributaries:

           Virgin River
           nr Littlefield

	   Dec  14.2 KAF (90% of average)
           Jan  14.0 KAF (81% of average)
           Feb  13.1 KAF (84% of average)
	   
          Little Colorado
           nr Cameron

	   Dec   1.7 KAF (51% of average)
           Jan   8.2 KAF (54% of average)
           Feb  10.0 KAF (57% of average)
        
          Paria Creek
           nr Lees Ferry

	   Dec   1.1 KAF (87% of average)
           Jan   1.3 KAF (78% of average)
           Feb   1.7 KAF (89% of average)

       * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * 

$$

Grout, Miller/CBRFC