SLCESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
December 16, 2022


The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local 
(or Intervening Flow).

Forecasts include monthly values for November - January.

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December 1-15 OBSERVED (EST.) CBRFC LML INFLOW:  
                       - values in KAF -

(Mead Release 234.5 + Mead Evap 16.4 + Mead Storage Change 36.4 + 
SNWP Use 3.7 - Lagged Powell Release 263.0) ~ 40.7

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FORECASTS:

* All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value *

Lake Mead Intervening Flow:

          December   63  KAF (88% of average)
          January    79  KAF (86% of average)
          February   81  KAF (86% of average)	

Lake Mead Adjusted Intervening Flow:

          December  71.1  KAF
          January   73.9  KAF
	  February  75.1  KAF

Equation Used for Adjusted Flow: 

Inflow(BOR) = Inflow(NWS) + Evap(BOR) - Evap(NWS) + BankStorageChange(BOR)

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Tributaries:

           Virgin River
           nr Littlefield

	   Dec  10.8 KAF (69% of average)
           Jan  14.1 KAF (81% of average)
           Feb  12.8 KAF (82% of average)
	   
          Little Colorado
           nr Cameron

	   Dec   0.9 KAF (27% of average)
           Jan   8.0 KAF (52% of average)
           Feb   9.9 KAF (56% of average)
        
          Paria Creek
           nr Lees Ferry

	   Dec   1.1 KAF (87% of average)
           Jan   1.3 KAF (78% of average)
           Feb   1.6 KAF (84% of average)

       * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * 

$$

Grout, Miller/CBRFC