Green River - LaBarge
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: June 12 2017

DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology

DATE,TOTAL,
2017-06-13,17300,Daily Model Output (20170612)
2017-06-14,16127
2017-06-15,15060
2017-06-16,13842
2017-06-17,12290
2017-06-18,10691
2017-06-19,9772
2017-06-20,9890
2017-06-21,10530
2017-06-22,11131
2017-06-23,13006,ESP Model Output (20170611)
2017-06-24,12950
2017-06-25,12687
2017-06-26,11797
2017-06-27,11156
2017-06-28,10581
2017-06-29,10083
2017-06-30,9602
2017-07-01,9304
2017-07-02,8917
2017-07-03,8686
2017-07-04,8404
2017-07-05,8009
2017-07-06,7620
2017-07-07,7261
2017-07-08,6820
2017-07-09,6391
2017-07-10,6119
2017-07-11,5940
2017-07-12,5664
2017-07-13,5531
2017-07-14,5287
2017-07-15,4965
2017-07-16,4833
2017-07-17,4692
2017-07-18,4539
2017-07-19,4334
2017-07-20,4256
2017-07-21,4070
2017-07-22,3936
2017-07-23,3710
2017-07-24,3462
2017-07-25,3352
2017-07-26,3335
2017-07-27,3343
2017-07-28,3220
2017-07-29,3072
2017-07-30,2945
2017-07-31,2878


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.