Green River - LaBarge
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: June 15 2017

DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology

DATE,TOTAL,
2017-06-16,13035,Daily Model Output (20170615)
2017-06-17,11671
2017-06-18,10822
2017-06-19,10554
2017-06-20,10929
2017-06-21,11455
2017-06-22,11470
2017-06-23,11565
2017-06-24,12057
2017-06-25,12301
2017-06-26,12144,ESP Model Output (20170614)
2017-06-27,11892
2017-06-28,11480
2017-06-29,10747
2017-06-30,10111
2017-07-01,9543
2017-07-02,9127
2017-07-03,8843
2017-07-04,8432
2017-07-05,8060
2017-07-06,7654
2017-07-07,7240
2017-07-08,6852
2017-07-09,6503
2017-07-10,6075
2017-07-11,6012
2017-07-12,5669
2017-07-13,5527
2017-07-14,5219
2017-07-15,4939
2017-07-16,4764
2017-07-17,4626
2017-07-18,4467
2017-07-19,4268
2017-07-20,4161
2017-07-21,3907
2017-07-22,3809
2017-07-23,3635
2017-07-24,3395
2017-07-25,3324
2017-07-26,3246
2017-07-27,3252
2017-07-28,3079
2017-07-29,2999
2017-07-30,2903
2017-07-31,2750


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.