Green River - LaBarge
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: June 16 2017

DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology

DATE,TOTAL,
2017-06-17,11266,Daily Model Output (20170616)
2017-06-18,10218
2017-06-19,10412
2017-06-20,10751
2017-06-21,11571
2017-06-22,11616
2017-06-23,11766
2017-06-24,12194
2017-06-25,12204
2017-06-26,11647
2017-06-27,12146,ESP Model Output (20170615)
2017-06-28,11611
2017-06-29,11145
2017-06-30,10514
2017-07-01,9869
2017-07-02,9306
2017-07-03,8868
2017-07-04,8333
2017-07-05,8067
2017-07-06,7528
2017-07-07,7163
2017-07-08,6802
2017-07-09,6381
2017-07-10,6115
2017-07-11,5915
2017-07-12,5629
2017-07-13,5409
2017-07-14,5114
2017-07-15,4925
2017-07-16,4702
2017-07-17,4578
2017-07-18,4431
2017-07-19,4248
2017-07-20,4105
2017-07-21,3835
2017-07-22,3731
2017-07-23,3563
2017-07-24,3359
2017-07-25,3269
2017-07-26,3185
2017-07-27,3172
2017-07-28,3010
2017-07-29,2947
2017-07-30,2819
2017-07-31,2746


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.