Green River - LaBarge
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: June 17 2017

DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology

DATE,TOTAL,
2017-06-18,9109,Daily Model Output (20170617)
2017-06-19,9770
2017-06-20,10479
2017-06-21,11624
2017-06-22,11788
2017-06-23,11850
2017-06-24,12171
2017-06-25,12335
2017-06-26,11935
2017-06-27,11106
2017-06-28,10067,ESP Model Output (20170616)
2017-06-29,9423
2017-06-30,9158
2017-07-01,9134
2017-07-02,9026
2017-07-03,8610
2017-07-04,8396
2017-07-05,8137
2017-07-06,7740
2017-07-07,7354
2017-07-08,7038
2017-07-09,6668
2017-07-10,6376
2017-07-11,6117
2017-07-12,5856
2017-07-13,5645
2017-07-14,5316
2017-07-15,5044
2017-07-16,4838
2017-07-17,4781
2017-07-18,4566
2017-07-19,4442
2017-07-20,4263
2017-07-21,3991
2017-07-22,3812
2017-07-23,3667
2017-07-24,3452
2017-07-25,3408
2017-07-26,3280
2017-07-27,3277
2017-07-28,3121
2017-07-29,3074
2017-07-30,2929
2017-07-31,2772


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.