Green River - LaBarge
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: June 20 2017

DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology

DATE,TOTAL,
2017-06-21,15350,Daily Model Output (20170620)
2017-06-22,15463
2017-06-23,14731
2017-06-24,14238
2017-06-25,13743
2017-06-26,12386
2017-06-27,10780
2017-06-28,9571
2017-06-29,9026
2017-06-30,8888
2017-07-01,9357,ESP Model Output (20170619)
2017-07-02,9211
2017-07-03,8978
2017-07-04,8659
2017-07-05,8415
2017-07-06,7928
2017-07-07,7502
2017-07-08,7254
2017-07-09,6924
2017-07-10,6655
2017-07-11,6293
2017-07-12,5958
2017-07-13,5730
2017-07-14,5385
2017-07-15,5072
2017-07-16,4924
2017-07-17,4812
2017-07-18,4695
2017-07-19,4495
2017-07-20,4327
2017-07-21,4073
2017-07-22,3828
2017-07-23,3676
2017-07-24,3486
2017-07-25,3433
2017-07-26,3329
2017-07-27,3185
2017-07-28,3118
2017-07-29,3058
2017-07-30,3034
2017-07-31,2825


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.