Green River - LaBarge
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: June 23 2017

DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology

DATE,TOTAL,
2017-06-24,14862,Daily Model Output (20170623)
2017-06-25,15274
2017-06-26,14200
2017-06-27,13011
2017-06-28,12406
2017-06-29,12109
2017-06-30,11697
2017-07-01,11296
2017-07-02,10398
2017-07-03,9315
2017-07-04,8587,ESP Model Output (20170622)
2017-07-05,7976
2017-07-06,7505
2017-07-07,7334
2017-07-08,7146
2017-07-09,7004
2017-07-10,6812
2017-07-11,6543
2017-07-12,6154
2017-07-13,5963
2017-07-14,5648
2017-07-15,5367
2017-07-16,5161
2017-07-17,4998
2017-07-18,4872
2017-07-19,4660
2017-07-20,4466
2017-07-21,4331
2017-07-22,4081
2017-07-23,3852
2017-07-24,3701
2017-07-25,3590
2017-07-26,3494
2017-07-27,3355
2017-07-28,3258
2017-07-29,3179
2017-07-30,3125
2017-07-31,2958


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.